Uncertainty and sensitivity in global carbon cycle modelling

Uncertainty and sensitivity in global carbon cycle modelling

This paper summarises the results obtalned from a stochastic sensitivity study in the area of global carbon cycle modelling In parhcular it outlines how Monte Carlo Slrnulation (MCS) techniques and associated Generalised Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) have been applied to a modified boxdiffusion model Using pararnetnc and input uncertainty measures denved from independent sources, the analysis show...

Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic

Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects – NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmos...

Sensitivity analysis and quantification of uncertainty for isotopic mixing relationships in carbon cycle research

Quantifying and understanding the uncertainty in isotopic mixing relationships is critical to isotopic applications in carbon cycle studies at all spatial and temporal scales. Studies that depend on stable isotope approaches must also address quantification of uncertainty for parameters derived from isotopic studies. An important application of isotopic mixing relationships is determination of ...

Carbon Cycle Uncertainty in REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP)

Characterisation of estimates of regional carbon budgets and processes is inherently a statistical task. In full form this means that almost all quantities used or produced are realizations or instances of probability distributions. We usually compress the description of these distributions by using some kind of location parameter (e.g. the mean) and some measure of spread or uncertainty (e.g. ...

Carbon Cycle Modelling: Illustrations of Modelling Problems in Igbp Studies